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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still