Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
